The Politics of Giving: How Election Results Influence Charitable Support

Both Republicans and Democrats have distinct tendencies in how they respond to shifts in presidential party leadership, particularly in their charitable giving. The outcome of any presidential election can influence charitable donations in a variety of ways, both through policy changes and increased activism. Charitable organizations, already grappling with a post-pandemic return to the theme of “fewer donors giving more,” are wondering how the election outcome will affect their sector.

Following the 2016 election, we saw the “Trump Bump,” where organizations focused on left-leaning causes—such as social justice, women’s rights, the environment, and even animal welfare—experienced a surge in support. Historically, Democrats tend to respond to a party loss by “voting with their wallet,” making donations to social causes that align with their values. Trump’s divisive nature amplified this trend.

Republicans are more responsive to a party change as it relates to their economic sentiment and outlook. After Biden took office following his 2020 election win, my research tracking economic sentiment revealed that conservative adults’ belief in an impending recession jumped by 2.5X year-over-year, rising from 24% during Trump’s fourth year in office to 59% in early 2021. Meanwhile, self-identified liberals had a more optimistic economic outlook, with recession concerns dropping 10 points, from 58% to 48% after Biden took office.

A Standford researcher not only corroborated my past findings, he also has a name for this effect: the “asymmetric amplification of partisanship.” Ryan Cummings, researcher at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, says that Republicans are roughly 2.5 times more sensitive to the politics of the presidency than Democrats when evaluating economic sentiment.

Given that two of the strongest giving predictors are wealth indicators like discretionary income and appreciated assets, the mere belief that a recession is looming—regardless of economic reality—can lead conservative donors to reduce charitable contributions in favor of saving. On the flip side, appreciating assets and markets paired with the belief of economic prosperity can translate into conservative donors giving more in a Republican presidency. Additional implications from polices such as the Tax Cut & Jobs Act (TCJA), which passed under Trump and is set to expire at the end of 2025, will impact both individual and corporate giving through tax rate changes.

As we prepare for the results of the election, we can anticipate the reactions from nearly half of the electorate whose party wasn’t victorious. Rather than taking a passive “wait and see” approach, a successful growth strategy in times of uncertainty is to move proactively, aligning with the priorities of your donors and markets.

Go boldly, in the direction your current and future supporters prefer to support. Donor and market research are essential for revealing how your organization’s many programs rank overall and within target segments. Tailoring your PR and communications efforts to highlight your needs through this lens is a timely and effective way to grow charitable support, regardless of which party is in power.